STEPs Cluster Meeting 1

Cluster meeting 1 took place at the end of November 2004 in Budapest, Hungary. Please find an overview and report of the meeting below:

Cluster Meeting 1 - Overview

The first cluster meeting presented the results of the state of the art review of current research from WP 1 and identification of trends in transport of energy use now and into the future from WP 2. It was designed to obtain feedback on the assessment of the research and its implications, and to identify any gaps in coverage of the review. A discussion at this first cluster meeting will feed into the final report for WP 2 and consider initial proposals for WP 3. A combination of plenary sessions, workshops and facilitated discussions were also used to ensure that the aims are achieved.

Cluster Meeting 1 - Report

The first open discussion meeting of the STEPs project was held in November 2004 in Budapest. The focus of the meeting was on transportation and energy supply trends and the state of the art at the beginning of the 21st Century and centred around presentations on:

The meeting was attended by a range of professionals from across Europe, including new member states. Attendees, from both within and outside the STEPs consortium, represented a wide spectrum of the transport profession including academics, EU and government officials, the motor industry, and specialist organisations. Because the project's findings on these issues will form the basis of its remaining actions, it was important for those present to be allowed to comment and point out where enhancements to the conclusions could be made. Hence, a detailed discussion followed each presentation.

The discussion on the state of the art in transport and energy supply focused on the inclusion of well-to-wheel issues, especially emissions, and the priorities in terms of which modes should be considered in the project. Although the transport sector is currently dominated by road transport there was a widely held view that STEPs should give an unbiased status to all modes, given the range of mode choice outcomes that may be driven by energy supply in the future.

It is widely accepted that alternative sources of energy will need to be developed to achieve future sustainability, but the form of that new supply is hotly debated, and this was also the case at the meeting. Natural gas is considered as a viable alternative in the medium term, but as this is another finite source and other energy consuming sectors are competing for their share of it the consequences of developing natural gas dependence need to be considered carefully:

Concerns were expressed in relation to the way in which hybrid vehicles are developing to support the transition to new energy sources. Currently, hybrid vehicles appear only being developed in the passenger transport market. The uptake of alternative fuels was also a concern to participants, with projections suggesting that they will only account for 10% of the market by 2030, but that Global Warming and finite supply problems need resolving more urgently. The range of alternative fuels to be incorporated within the project was also considered important. Biofuels, reformer-based fuel cells, and electric vehicles were identified as options not to be overlooked when considering future options.

The discussion that followed the presentation of transportation trends, and energy implications was very much linked to the scenario building that will be conducted in the next stage of STEPs and which will define how the models will be used to assess future developments and needs. The issue for the audience centred on how the trends identified should be used in the scenario building and modelling, rather than the actual trends themselves. There was much discussion of whether the right set of indicators has been selected for what STEPs is trying to achieve within the scenario / modelling exercise. A view was expressed that it is possible to have too many indicators, which would make it difficult to draw clear conclusions. Careful consideration will also be needed to ensure that the scenarios, the indicators that are eventually used and the modelling demands they will make, all fall within the capabilities of the models that will be used (whether that is within the models' existing capabilities or the limited scope available for model development as part of STEPs).

Having discussed the key concerns in future transport and energy supply developments, the discussion shifted to focus on the next stage of the STEPs project – development of future scenarios for modelling. EU policy options need to be incorporated, especially trans-European networks. Policies that influence technology developments (e.g., Euro 5 emissions standards), and social and economic factors (e.g., internalisation of external costs) also need to be incorporated, since transport is influenced by, and has influence on, many other sectors. This would mean that STEPs would take a broad view of policy developments, going beyond the transport sector. Such an approach would also reflect the EU shift towards focusing on environmental, social, and economic sustainability. However, this focus on EU policy should not substitute consideration of national policies, as within the EU there is a diversity of national policies ranging from those very focused on sustainability, to those primarily concerned with economic growth.

Wider considerations will also be important. In particular, the actions of new member states were highlighted, particularly with regard to moves to meet noise and emission regulations. With regard to future social trends, travel time budgets were considered particularly relevant: for example, will travel time budgets increase to allow more time for travel, will travel for some journey purposes be reduced to allow increases in other areas, or will non-transport factors, such as increasing working hours, force changes in travel time budgets?